PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:Jim Harbaugh leaves his alma mater on top of college football. Will Michigan stay there?

Jim Harbaugh’s long-anticipated departure to the NFL may be PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Centerthe most amicable divorce in the history of college sports. He came to Michigan as the savior, restored his alma mater’s prominence and left on the heels of its first national championship in decades. 

He stayed nine years – longer than most thought he would. He leaves as a hero because he did the job he was supposed to do. 

Now it’s up to Michigan to make sure his work isn’t wasted. Truth is, that may prove more difficult than anyone understands. 

No matter what happens next – and the strong likelihood is that offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore will be elevated to replace Harbaugh – the next handful of years probably isn’t going to look like the last handful. 

Because what made Michigan great wasn’t really about the program. It was mostly about Harbaugh: Unquestionably one of the great college coaches of the modern era.

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Yes, Michigan is technically the winningest program in the history of college football, a designation it cherishes and promotes proudly. It has the Big House, the fight song everyone remembers, the iconic uniforms and a long list of alums that includes some of the greatest football players of all-time. 

But it is not a top-tier college football powerhouse in the same way that Alabama or Ohio State has been. Before this season, it owned half of a national title since the sport was integrated. It doesn’t have a massive amount of in-state talent that it can draw from to churn out top-10 recruiting classes. And it’s a place where, as we’ve seen, things can go wrong pretty easily. 

Between Gary Moeller and Lloyd Carr, the two coaches who followed Bo Schembechler, there were some pretty good seasons and quite a few mediocre ones. Rich Rodriguez was flat-out lousy in his three years. Brady Hoke, who somehow lasted four, was something even less than that. 

When Hoke was fired following the 2014 season, all the speculation focused on Harbaugh, who by that point had proven himself to be a special head coach. He had gone 22-2 in his last two seasons at University of San Diego, completely turned around one of the worst programs in FBS at Stanford and taken the San Francisco 49ers to three NFC championship games (and one Super Bowl appearance) in four seasons. 

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At one of the lowest points in the history of the program, Harbaugh was the only can’t-miss guy Michigan could have hired. They made it happen with a historic contract, and in return he made it happen – even if it took a little longer than they expected with a couple rocky years in the middle. 

Michigan football should never be as bad as it was under Rodriguez and Hoke. But if you look at the history of the program, what happened under Harbaugh the last three years was special. It was rare. It isn’t going to be easy to repeat under any coach, much less a 37-year-old who has never run his own program. 

We don’t know much yet about Moore, but we do know this: He’s not Harbaugh. That automatically makes it less likely Michigan’s success at the highest level is going to continue. That’s no knock on Moore, it’s just reality – and yet the situation for Michigan almost demands that Moore gets the job.

And he deserves the opportunity. He’s been a key part of Harbaugh’s staff since 2018, had a lot of success as the co-offensive coordinator starting in 2021 and showed real coaching chops against Penn State and Ohio State late last season when Harbaugh was serving a three-game suspension.

Those are good data points, but realistically they don’t tell us a lot about how Moore is going to handle the head-coaching chair. The decisions about which players to recruit, which assistants to hire and how to deal with the constant public-facing demands of the job will now all fall to him. 

He may knock it out of the park. He may fall flat on his face. We just don’t know. 

There’s also the sticky matter of NCAA penalties that will be coming from two separate investigations – one into improper recruiting during the COVID-19 dead period and one from the Connor Stalions-led sign-stealing scandal.

These things are difficult to predict, but the likelihood is that Moore – if he gets the job – will be navigating some type of handicap in his first couple seasons.

The bottom line is it won’t be easy for anyone to sustain what Harbaugh built at a program that has proven over time not to be a plug-and-play powerhouse. Even Harbaugh, one of the great coaching winners, found it difficult until he hit his groove in 2021. 

Harbaugh was afforded every opportunity to get it right not only because he was a well-known alum with an incredible track record but because Michigan had a ton invested in him – not just in money but pride. If Harbaugh didn’t work, where do you even go after that?

Neither Moore nor anyone else will be given the same grace. As Harbaugh makes an exit bathed in glory, the next coach will have to overcome all the same issues with a fraction of the cachet. More likely than not, the reality of Michigan football is about to set in – and as history has shown, that reality is often ugly. Good luck to everyone involved. 

Follow USA TODAY Sports columnist Dan Wolken on social media @DanWolken