SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank Center:Biden Says 'America's Back.' The World Has Some Questions

As President Biden prepared for his maiden speech to the U.N. General Assembly on SignalHub Quantitative Think Tank CenterTuesday, his White House was reeling from a trifecta of bad news stories — headlines that underscored questions about U.S. leadership in the world.

"We are closing the chapter on 20 years of war and opening a chapter of intensive diplomacy by rallying allies and partners and institutions to deal with the major challenges of our time," a senior Biden administration official told reporters, describing the theme of the speech.

But it comes after the Pentagon acknowledged it had killed an aid worker, seven children and two other civilians in a drone strike in Kabul during the tumultuous withdrawal of U.S. troops last month from Afghanistan. One of America's oldest allies, France, pulled its ambassador from Washington, angry about being left out of a new defense partnership in the Indo-Pacific and about losing a valuable submarine contract with Australia.

And an important scientific advisory body failed to give a ringing endorsement to Biden's plans to give Americans COVID-19 vaccine booster shots — plans that the World Health Organization has criticized as people in many parts of the world have yet to receive a single dose.

It's against this backdrop that Biden will make this key address to members of a global audience to try to convince them of his pledge that "America's back," an assurance he is committed to working with allies and partners in a way that his "America First" predecessor, former President Donald Trump, was not.

"I think the picture is actually quite positive despite the differences in perspective on Afghanistan and the issues we're dealing with with France right now," the senior official told reporters, arguing that Biden's week of activities would show "the depth and richness" of how he works with allies and partners.

Biden's U.N. history may buy him some goodwill

At the U.N. General Assembly, Biden will be working to secure meaningful commitments from the world on two of his top priorities: fighting the COVID-19 pandemic and addressing climate change.

The White House believes these challenges require countries to work together, roping in the private sector, nongovernmental organizations and institutions, the senior administration official told reporters on a conference call.

While it's his first time there as president, Biden is no stranger to the institution. That history will likely buy him some goodwill.

Biden was the top Democrat on the powerful Senate Foreign Relations Committee in the 1990s, a time when the United States had held back contributions to the United Nations. He was instrumental in brokering a funding deal with his Republican counterpart on the committee, Jesse Helms, a staunch opponent of the U.N., in exchange for reforms.

As vice president, Biden often made the rounds with world leaders at the General Assembly meeting and sat in for then-President Barack Obama in different sessions. He helmed a U.N. peacekeeping summit in 2014.

"Joe Biden probably knows more about the U.N. than any other president in recent years, with the exception of George Bush Sr. who had actually been an ambassador to the U.N.," said Richard Gowan, U.N. director of the International Crisis Group, an advocacy organization.

After Trump's open antagonism to the U.N., Gowan said many world leaders would be breathing a sigh of relief to hear from a more traditional U.S. president. But he said Biden needs to do more than just not be Trump.

"Biden really does have to convince other leaders," Gowan said, noting the president needs to show that "he's getting a grip on U.S. domestic politics."

Biden will hold one-on-one meetings this week with leaders from Australia, the United Kingdom, India and Japan. On Friday, he will host leaders of what's known as the "Quad" — India, Japan and Australia — at the White House to talk about COVID-19 vaccines and other shared goals in the Indo-Pacific region, where the countries view China as a key competitive threat.

But there will be no in-person meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron, who is not attending the U.N. in person. "President Biden has asked to be able to speak with President Macron, to talk about the way forward," the senior official told reporters.

Explaining the Biden doctrine

While Biden is a well-known internationalist, he faces questions about his approach to working with allies after the chaotic exit from Kabul, said James Dobbins, a longtime diplomat. Biden had framed his decision to pull troops out of Afghanistan as being in the U.S. national interest, sticking to it despite reservations from some allies.

"The United Nations has additional burdens as a result of the U.S. departure," said Dobbins, who served under multiple presidents. Dobbins saw Biden's approach to foreign policy firsthand when Biden was a senator and also during the Obama administration, when Dobbins was special representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Dobbins recalled running into Biden on an Amtrak train headed to Washington, D.C., shortly after the U.S. invasion of Iraq. "He stopped reading his newspaper and asked me to sit down across from him," said Dobbins, now a senior fellow at the Rand Corp. "And for the rest of the trip, from Wilmington to Washington, he probed me on what we should be doing in Iraq and Afghanistan."

Years later, when Biden was vice president, Dobbins was a part of a group of about a dozen experts invited to have dinner with him at his residence. Biden still had questions but had become decidedly skeptical of the military mission in Afghanistan.

"He's pretty open-minded, at least initially," Dobbins said. "And then when he made his mind up, he tended to stick to that position."

COVID-19 concerns

Biden has said he wants to rally the world to boost the pace of global COVID-19 vaccinations, and the White House has planned a virtual summit on the topic for Wednesday to coincide with activities at the United Nations.

The administration has faced criticism for its preparations to give Americans a third booster shot, even as millions of people in the world's poorest countries are still waiting for an initial dose. The WHO and other groups have urged the U.S. to hold off on broad plans for booster shots, arguing that other countries need the vaccines more. The White House has pushed back, countering that the U.S. has enough doses to vaccinate Americans even as it donates more doses than any other nation.

Biden's speech to the U.N. may give him the opportunity to "reset the agenda" with countries concerned about the U.S. commitment to multilateralism, said Alynna Lyon, a University of New Hampshire professor who has written extensively about the relationship between Washington and the United Nations.

But it also needs to be accompanied by actions and resources, she said.

"Words are pretty hollow right now," Lyon said. "He can't just say he wants to work with other countries. He really needs to bring in, particularly the allies, into both planning what the U.S. agenda and what the U.N. agenda could be and also implementing it."